Our Letters

In mid-2024, Ryanair publicly acknowledged that delayed Boeing 737 MAX deliveries were forcing it to cap growth and extend the life of older aircraft. Passenger demand was strong; aircraft availability from manufacturers was not. Similar dynamics have played out at Lufthansa Group and Air New Zealand, where delivery delays and supply-chain disruptions at OEMs and their suppliers have become the binding constraint on fleet growth. This paradox now defines global commercial aerospace. Order books are full, load factors are elevated, and visibility extends well into the next decade—yet aircraft deliveries remain structurally below prior peaks. The bottleneck sits upstream in the traditional aerospace manufacturing system, strained by labour shortages, cost inflation, certification intensity, and weakened supplier balance sheets across North America and Europe.

12 January 2026

In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, in one of the operations, Ukraine used just $200k worth of drones to destroy $7 billion worth of Russian fighter jets, a striking example of how drones are rewriting the economics of warfare.In this letter, we explore this shift and the massive investment opportunity it has created: low-cost drones that dominate offense and counter-drone systems vital for defense. We quantify the shifting investment landscape, outlining India's drone and counter-drone roadmap and map the value chain to estimate where the profit pools would migrate to. We believe this is a structural shift that will create a new defense-industrial order for years to come.

10 October 2025

We are excited to share our Q1 FY26 update—a milestone that also marks one full year of Xponent Tribe. To all our early supporters, thank you for your trust. It has meant everything. This letter is different. It goes beyond performance. It unpacks a worldview that shapes every decision we make at the firm—the belief that markets are not machines, but complex, adaptive systems. And that as humans, we are naturally wired to fail in them. You may have heard this from us in parts. But this is the full picture. If you’ve ever felt confused when good stocks fall, or watched a rally make no sense—this letter is for you. It won’t promise certainty. But it might change how you think about uncertainty.

15 July 2025

In this letter, we deep dive into a disruptive force transforming one of the world’s oldest luxury industries: lab-grown diamonds (LGDs). What began as a niche is now triggering a structural shift across the global jewellery value chain—challenging long-standing cartels and unlocking opportunities for new, nimble players. We break down what LGDs are, how their value chain works, why prices have collapsed (and why they may now be near a floor), and highlight where promising opportunities may lie. Whether you're intrigued by innovation or interested in the future of jewellery, this is a story worth knowing.

12 April 2025

In this letter, we explore the transformative rise of GLP-1 drugs, which have captured global attention as revolutionary weight-loss treatments. Brands like Ozempic and Wegovy have sparked widespread buzz, even prompting Elon Musk to call GLP-1 drugs 'the single biggest positive effect on healthcare and quality of life in the 21st century'. We delve into the factors driving their meteoric demand, analyze their intricate supply chain, and highlight opportunities for listed Indian players. Whether you're an investor or simply curious about groundbreaking advancements, we believe this is a story worth knowing.

6 January 2025

In our second quarterly letter, we delve into the current market dynamics, likening it to a game of throwing darts blindfolded—where luck can often be mistaken for skill. This environment reinforces the need to remain disciplined in identifying fundamentally strong businesses. Medi Assist, a standout in the TPA industry, embodies the traits we value, including longevity, resilience, and leadership.

11 October 2024

In this letter, we delve into the critical role of behaviour in driving investment success. In an environment flooded with information and unpredictability, our primal instincts often prompt impulsive actions. Recognizing these tendencies, we stress the importance of establishing robust guardrails to enhance our success. Our discussion highlights the significance of patience, careful evaluation, and cultivating a supportive ecosystem for long-term value creation.

12 July 2024